NEW IDEA  ·  BUY  ·  MARCH 2026
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
$382
Mkt Cap $11.7B NEW IDEA | BUY

"The Infrastructure Layer of the AI Revolution"

48 Slides
6 Podcasts
3 Videos
Scroll

Three Reasons to Own STRL

🏗️
Transformation Complete
Highway contractor → DC infrastructure platform. 79% highway (2016) → 9% (2025). Gross margin expanded from 17% → 23%. EBITDA margin breached 20%. The business that emerges from this pivot is unrecognizable vs. five years ago.
GM +600 bps over 9 years
Integrated Moat
CEC acquisition creates a single-source provider for site prep + electrical. Shaves 1–2 months off hyperscale build cycles. Eliminates 90% of competitors who lack the integrated capability. Hyperscalers pay a premium for speed and accountability.
90% competitors eliminated
📊
Multi-Year Visibility
$4.5B visibility pool with hyperscalers reserving capacity through 2030. Pipeline +170% Y/y. Backlog +78% Y/y to $3.01B. Earnings power is locked in — the debate is how much upside exists beyond the guide.
Pipeline +170% Y/y

The Numbers Behind the Thesis

Revenue (FY25A)
$2.49B
+32% Y/y
Adj EBITDA
$483M
20% margin
Adj EPS (FY25A)
$10.88
+53% Y/y
Backlog
$3.01B
+78% Y/y
FY26E Revenue
$3.11B
+25% vs FY25
FY26E Adj EPS
$13.75
+26% vs FY25
FCF Conversion
~70%
of EBITDA
Net Cash
~$100M
Balance Sheet Strength

Videos & Podcasts

Videos (3)
Deconstructing the Sterling Rerating
The mechanics of portfolio mix shift: E-Infra growth drove multiples from 6x to 23x.
Engineering Ground Zero: STRL's Physical Moat
What Sterling does on a hyperscale campus. Why only a handful can compete.
The Physical Bottleneck
How dirt and copper dictate the $600B AI CapEx cycle.
Podcasts (6)
01
STRL Deep Dive
Full company analysis: transformation, financials, segments, moat, valuation, risks.
02
STRL & the AI Data Center Boom
How Sterling became the go-to site developer for hyperscale data centers.
03
The AI Power Bottleneck
Time-to-power crisis and how Sterling benefits from self-power generation.
04
STRL's AI Data Center Pivot
Strategic transformation from highway contractor to DC infrastructure platform.
05
The Data Center Valuation Anomaly
Why STRL trades at a discount to specialty peers despite similar fundamentals.
06
Why STRL Dominates AI Data Centers
Competitive moat deep dive: scale, safety, equipment, integration.

Source Materials

📊
New Idea Slide Deck
48 slides · March 2026 · HTML Presentation
📄
AI Infrastructure Blueprint
PDF · CCA Research
📄
AlphaSense Industry Primer
PDF · AlphaSense
📄
AlphaSense Supply Chain Map
PDF · AlphaSense
📄
Stifel STRL Initiation
PDF · Stifel · Feb 2026
📄
Stifel DC Project Tracker
PDF · Stifel · Nov 2025
📄
Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation
PDF · Sterling Infrastructure · Q4 2025

Valuation Snapshot

Ticker EV/EBITDA P/E Mkt Cap
STRL 17.7x 27.0x $11.7B
FIX 23.2x 33.2x $45.1B
EME 15.6x 24.2x $31.4B
PWR 24.1x 39.2x $79.8B
Group Mean 13.5x 23.4x
STRL Premium vs Mean vs peers +31% +16%

Further Research